Kansas City was a 10-point favorite in that contest and not only easily covered the point spread, but also came back to take the lead at halftime 28-24 with 28 unanswered points in a game full of. The largest point spreads in NFL history make for interesting conversation and even more interesting wagers. While it’s not terribly unusual to see one or two spreads in double digits each week, the key numbers in football are on the lower end, and most football spreads are set at less than seven points. Get the latest NFL odds, spreads and betting lines from this week's games, as well as full coverage of the National Football League from USA TODAY.

1. Nfl Football Games Point Spreads
2. Point Spread For Nfl Football Games This Weekend
3. Nfl Football Games Today Point Spread

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Okay now the fun part creating your own point spread. Many handicappers have long drawn out math equations for making power ratings. I have found that most of these statistical formulas are never as accurate as they claim to be. I have a very simple approach to creating power ratings and will share it with you below.

Okay the new football season is around the corner at the time of publish so I am going off of last season numbers at this point, but you will get the idea. I am going to use the Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys as my example in which the books have listed the Redskins as 3 point favorite at Dallas. We are going to take the last 6 scores from both teams 2005 NFL campaign.

Washington
10-20
17-10
31-20
35-20
35-7
17-13

Because we are looking for the median we are going to throw out the high and the low scores for both offense and defense. This will give us the numbers 17, 31, 35, and 17. We threw out one of the 35s and the low score of 10. These 4 games total add up to 100 and give us a median score of 25 on offense. We will do the same for the defense and come up with 20, 10, 20, and 13. The defense power rating is 15.75, (63 divided by 4).

We will than do the same thing with the Cowboys, our hypothetical matchup.

Dallas
10-20
24-20
7-35
31-28
10-17
21-24
20-7

You will see I listed 7 final scores for Dallas and we are going to throw out the last performance of 10-20 against Seattle since that was the Cowboys last game of the season and it was not a meaningful game. Games like these will throw off the power rating, just as you don’t use preseason games in your ratings since it is not an accurate measure of the teams full capabilities.

With that said we come up with a median score for the Dallas offense of 24, 10, 21, and 20 which gives us an offensive rating of 18.75. On the defensive side of the ball we have scores of 20, 28, 17, and 24 giving us the defensive power rating of 22.25.

Now that we have our team ratings lets formulate a point spread. Washington’s scoring rating is 25 and Dallas’s defensive rating is 22.25. We add these 2 numbers together and get 47.25 than subtract 20.5 (which is the average team rating that will be used in every power rating for the season) and get 26.75 for predicted Washington points. We would do the same for Dallas, 18.75 + 15.75=34.5. Than subtract the 20.5 and we would come up with 14.

The predicted final score in this game using our power rating system would be Washington 26.75, Dallas 20.5. Because this hypothetical game is being played at Dallas we must add 3 points to the Cowboys score (adding 1.5 to their score and taking 1.5 away from Washington, since the Cowboys are playing at home. Giving us the new total of Washington 25.25, Dallas 22. With our hypothetical point spread of Washington -3 it looks like it is dead on for the most part. This game would be a pass in our book at the current number of Washington -3. Now if the books had made Washington a 2 point favorite, a Washington -2 bet would be a very good investment, just as a line of Dallas +4 would have made a very good investment on Dallas at that number. I recommend wagering on any number that is 1 point off of your power rankings. By staying disciplined and keeping to this 1 point model you will find about 3 solid bets per week against the NFL point spreads.

Just keep in mind to come up with a new median score after each game is played out. Once the first week of the season is over, you would than take that result and eliminate the first of the 6 games you previously used to derive a median score.

Now that we are picking winners lets move on to proper money management.

If you have a sports betting portal and want your link in front of a target gambling audience email me for my rate card.

Point spread betting is the most popular form of sports betting. The vast majority of sports wagers use a point spread thanks to the popularity of football and basketball. Even though this type of betting is so popular, it may take awhile to understand.

The point spread is sometimes known as an equalizer for sportsbook operators. All teams aren’t created equally, so sportsbooks can create a point spread for a game so that each team playing has an almost even chance of winning the game. In a way, the point spread will even the field for both teams.

The point spread gives a reason for bettors to risk money on both teams. The better team playing in the game is considered favorite. They have to win by the point spread offered by the sportsbook. The favorite in a game is listed as being minus (-) the point spread.

The worse of the teams playing in the game is called the underdog. The bettor wins if this team wins the game outright or loses by an amount smaller than the point spread. The underdog in a game is listed as being plus (+) the point spread.

Nfl Football Games Point Spreads

Let’s use this past Super Bowl between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs as an example.

Using this example, the Chiefs were 3-point favorites over the Buccaneers. The Chiefs needed to win by 4 or more points to cover the spread.

Likewise, the Buccaneers were 3-point underdogs. That means the Buccaneers needed to win the game outright or not lose the contest by 4 points or more. At Chiefs -3, if they won by exactly 3 points, the betting result would have been a “push” and bettors for both sides would have gotten their wagers refunded.

The Buccaneers pulled off the upset, winning by a score of 31-9, and rewarded bettors who backed them at +3.

Point spread betting odds

Point spreads are usually set with -110 odds, but pricing often fluctuates at online sportsbooks. This is the sportsbook operators’ house edge. The odds guarantee the sportsbook operator will see a little money over time. When the odds are set at -110, the bettor must wager $110 to win $100 (or $11 to win $10).

The odds on a point spread are most commonly known as the vigorish or “vig” for the sportsbook. You might hear this small profit margin for the sportsbook called the “juice” by some sports bettors.

Point spread FAQs

What does ‘pick em’ or ‘pick’ mean in NFL betting?

A “pick em” (sometimes seen as “pick”) is when the teams have a point spread of zero, meaning neither team is favored. In this instance, you’re essentially picking moneyline and your bet will be determined on the winner alone.

Point Spread For Nfl Football Games This Weekend

What does -7 and +7 mean in NFL betting?

A spread of minus-seven (-7) means that a is favored to win the game by a touchdown (technically, a touchdown and the extra point). A team favored by -7 must win the game by eight or more points to win the bet. If the team wins by seven, the result is a “push” and the bet is refunded.

A spread of +7 means the team must win the game or lose by fewer than seven points to win the bet. A loss by seven would result in a push.

What does -3 and +3 mean in NFL betting?

A -3 spread means that the favorite must win by more than a field goal to win the wager. A three-point win would result in a push and the sportsbook would refund the wager.

A spread of +3 means the team listed as the underdog must win the game or lose by fewer than three points to cash the bet. A three-point loss would be graded as a push by the sportsbook and the bet would be refunded.

Why are point spreads in the NFL so much lower than in college?

In 2019, the Baltimore Ravens led the NFL in point differential per game at +13.7 points; the Miami Dolphins ranked last in the NFL in point differential per game at -11.7. Even Kansas City– known for their explosive offense– had an average point differential in 2019 of just 9.7 points. The net point differential in the NFL is -14.1, or -0.9 points per game. Basically, the talent differential in the NFL is so minute that even mismatched teams often draw games within a score of each other.

NFL spreads are most commonly between one point and four, with six being a heavy favorite and extremes coming out around 15-20 point favors. (For those wondering, the 1941 Chicago Bears hold the NFL record of point differential at +15.7 points per game. Conversely, Ohio State had a +33.1 average point differential in 2019.)

Point spread and odds movement

Sportsbook operators often aim to have equal money on both sides of a point spread. When the money is exactly split the sportsbook operator will see the exact vigorish as their profit margin. If all things are equal over time this will maximize how much money the sportsbook operator can make.

In an effort to have equal money on both sides of a wager, the sportsbook operator will move the point spread to attract money on the side that customers aren’t betting on. The odds for a point spread might change before the actual point spread. There are certain point spread numbers, like 3 and 7 in football, the sportsbook operators would like to avoid moving away from since the final score margin falls on these two numbers most often.

For example, if a lot more money is wagered on the New England Patriots -3, the vig may shift from -112 to -115 and -120 before the line moves to -3.5.

Run and puck lines

Football and basketball games are mostly bet using a point spread. The less popular major sports, baseball and hockey, are mostly bet using a moneyline. In an effort to make baseball and hockey more appealing to point spread bettors, the sportsbook operators offer run and puck lines, respectively.

Nfl Football Games Today Point Spread

These alternative lines give point spread bettors a chance to wager on other sports using a more familiar method of betting. Since points (runs and goals) aren’t as easy to come by in baseball and hockey, the odds with the lines may have a wider spread than a football or basketball game.